Expectativas de empleo y crecimiento económico tras la nueva reforma laboral española: análisis del impacto de la confianza empresarial

Irene Campos García; Carolina Cosculluela Martínez

doi:10.51302/rtss.2023.3353

Authors

Irene Campos García PDI Universidad Rey Juan Carlos (Madrid, España) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2227-7820
Carolina Cosculluela Martínez PDI Universidad Rey Juan Carlos (Madrid, España) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0885-7511

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51302/rtss.2023.3353

Keywords:

labor cost, business confidence, GDP, unemployment, sectors, Spain, VECM

Abstract

The approval of new labor reform in Spain has reignited a debate in which different academic and professional voices discuss the impact of labor costs on variables such as the business confidence index (BCI), GDP, or employment. This research aims to assess how an increase in labor costs affects GDP and unemployment in different periods and to what degree business confidence can modify this impact. To this end, a VECM with data from 2013-2021 allows mutual causality between the variables considered and measures short- and long-term effects. The results show the elasticity’ in different periods and confirm that the impact on BCI of a shock in labor cost is increasingly negative over time and produces high negative effects on employment and GDP growth, especially on employment 6 months after the shock. The data according to activity sectors also show the importance of business confidence in explaining the evolution of GDP and unemployment in the construction, transport, and hospitality sectors. These findings can be helpful in the formulation of policies and strategies that contribute to business confidence and influence different aspects related to production and employment decisions.

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Author Biographies

Irene Campos García, PDI Universidad Rey Juan Carlos (Madrid, España)

Licenciada en Económicas y Periodismo y doctora en Organización de Empresas. Estancias docentes en Paris Business School y Copenhaguen Business School y estancias de investigación en Middlesex University London y Clarion University (Pensilvania, EE. UU.). Publicaciones en revistas internacionales de alto impacto y miembro de un proyecto de investigación del Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación. Nominada 3 años como mejor profesora de universidad de España (Premio Abanca). https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2227-7820

Carolina Cosculluela Martínez, PDI Universidad Rey Juan Carlos (Madrid, España)

Premio extraordinario de doctorado en Economía Aplicada y Estadística con Premio Enrique Fuentes Quintana (Funcas). Investigadora principal de proyecto competitivo de la Fundación Ramón Areces. Ocho artículos publicados en revistas indexadas en JCR y tres más en WOS (1 sexenio). Otras publicaciones en la primera revista del IN-RECS y publicaciones en editoriales situadas en el primer decil y primer cuartil del SPI y una monografía premiada. Docencia e investigación en el Departamento de Econometría de las Universidades de Illinois y de Katowice. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0885-7511

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